CORAL GABLES, Fla. — Mario Cristobal doesn’t like making predictions. It’s rare to find a head coach who does.

“I’m never gonna predict any aspect of the game,” he said Monday, four days before the University of Miami opens its second season of the Cristobal era against Miami of Ohio at Hard Rock Stadium.

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“Do we feel confident in our progress? Absolutely. As a program we do. We feel confident that we’ve worked hard. We feel confident that we’re working and earning our way to playing better, and that’s where we’d like to leave it before a game.”

Honestly, Cristobal doesn’t need to worry about making any season predictions — or even a depth chart. We’ve got him covered.

Miami 2023 depth chart

Roster notes

• Cristobal said running back TreVonte’ Citizen (knee) and offensive linemen Jonathan Denis (knee), Zion Nelson (knee) and Antonio Tripp (shoulder) will not be available to play at the start of the season following offseason surgeries but could be back in the weeks and months ahead.

• Barring major injuries to players in front of them in the rotation, I expect 16 of the 24 true freshmen to be in position to earn redshirts, including running back Chris Johnson Jr.; receiver Robby Washington; offensive linemen Tripp, Frankie Tinilau and Tommy Kinsler; tight ends Riley Williams and Jackson Carver; defensive linemen Jayden Wayne, Josh Horton and Collins Acheampong; linebackers Bobby Washington Jr., Raul Aguirre Jr., Marcellius Pulliam and Malik Bryant; cornerback Robert Stafford and safety Kaleb Spencer.

Player projections

• Miami struggled with trust and confidence in the passing game last year, but Cristobal feels as though that’s one of the strongest parts of the team entering the 2023 season. Does that mean we should expect a healthy Tyler Van Dyke to put up the kind numbers he did over the final six games of the 2021 season (366 yards per game, 20 TDs, three INTs) when he finished as the nation’s 11th-ranked passer? I’m not buying that because Miami is still going to run the football a lot. But I do expect to see Van Dyke come close to matching Justin Herbert’s numbers at Oregon his senior year (3,471 yards, 32 TDs, six INTs). If Van Dyke plays all 12 regular-season games, I’m calling for him to complete 64 percent of his passes for 3,231 yards, 29 TDs and eight picks, which should make him a top-40 quarterback in terms of QBR.

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•  Miami finished 95th in yards per carry (3.74) last season and 98th in 2021 (3.69) and hasn’t had a running back eclipse 700 rushing yards in a season since 2018 when Travis Homer finished with 985 yards and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said Monday it’ll be a running back by committee to start the season, which means we probably won’t see the program’s first 1,000-yard back since Mark Walton in 2016.

What I am counting on is Miami averaging better than 4.1 yards per carry and finishing in the top half of the ACC in rushing with at least 2,000 yards as a team. I’m betting on big-bodied freshman Mark Fletcher to lead the team in rushing attempts (100), yards (603), touchdowns (six) and yard per carry (6.03), with Nebraska transfer Ajay Allen and returning starter Henry Parrish Jr. being right on his tail in a lot of those categories.

• Dawson has a good idea who his dudes are at receiver. Miami didn’t really have one last year, but I’m betting that 6-foot-5, 215-pound junior Colbie Young becomes that guy around the end zone for TVD. He’ll lead the team with 11 touchdown catches — the most by a Hurricane since Leonard Hankerson’s 13 in 2010 — and grab 55 passes for 711 yards. Xavier Restrepo, meanwhile, will lead the team with 65 catches for 840 yards and a handful of TDs as well. The breakthrough player, though, will be freshman Nathaniel “Ray-Ray” Joseph. He should earn Freshman All-American honors with 45 catches for 733 yards and five TDs.

• Tight end Will Mallory led the Hurricanes last season with 42 catches for 538 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore Elijah Arroyo, coming off a season-ending knee injury, is going to get off to a slow start. So, I’m putting him down for 30 catches for 347 yards and four touchdowns. Those are the same numbers Mallory put up in 2021.

• Do not expect Miami’s offensive line rotation to go very deep barring injury. The first two guys off the bench in the event that happens will be freshman Samson Okunlola and redshirt freshman Matthew McCoy. Center Matt Lee (UCF transfer) and left guard Javion Cohen (Alabama transfer) will be the keys to Miami’s improved running game, and both will make the all-conference team.

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• Stopping the run is going to be the key to everything in Lance Guidry’s defense. Without the kind of size Darrell Jackson provided in the middle last season, there’s a good chance Miami is going to slip from being average a year ago (63rd nationally, allowing 4.0 yards per carry) to finishing further down the list. Good rushing teams will find ways to beat the Hurricanes, who ranked eighth in the ACC in rushing yards allowed (142.1).

Guidry said Purdue transfer Branson Deen will likely lead the team in snaps at defensive tackle (he played 492 last season for the Boilermakers). Leonard Taylor, a 10-game starter, played 329 snaps. If both of those guys don’t play more than 500 snaps, I guarantee you Miami is going to have one of the worst rushing defenses in the ACC.

• On the flip side, the Hurricanes should top 40 sacks for the first time since 2019 with the collection of talent they have combined with the heavy pressure schemes Guidry will bring. Akheem Mesidor led Miami with seven sacks and tied for the team lead with 10.5 tackles for loss last season. This year, I’m putting talented sophomore Nyjalik Kelly and Mesidor’s backup, freshman Rueben Bain, down for at least eight sacks each.

• Francisco “Kiko” Mauigoa was brought in from Washington State to replace Corey Flagg as Miami’s starting middle linebacker. Mauigoa should lead all Miami linebackers in snaps (550) and tackles (80-plus).

• Yes, Miami’s pass defense was bad last year, but an improved pass rush will probably help the Hurricanes show progress across the board. Opposing quarterbacks completed 60.9 percent of their passes for an average of 233.1 yards per game, and the Canes’ 8.3 yards allowed per attempt ranked last in the ACC and 121st overall. Will all of the big pass plays allowed vanish suddenly? No. But there should be fewer of them. After giving up an ACC-high 15 pass plays of 40 yards or more, I say Miami trims it to 10.

• How much will James Williams move into the box and play outside linebacker? Guidry said it will depend on matchups. Well, I think it’ll be fewer than 150 snaps because Miami needs somebody else at safety to emerge and take his reps and I’m not sure that guy exists on the roster right now.

• Will All-American safety Kamren Kinchens match the ACC-leading six interceptions he had a year ago? Yes. Shockingly, Kinchens was targeted only 21 times in pass coverage last season, which tied for 25th in the ACC among safeties. That’s fewer than twice a game and yet he had a knack for coming up with the football.

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Tomorrow, I will rank the Hurricanes schedule from the easiest game to the hardest.

(Photo of Xavier Restrepo: Justin Berl / Getty Images)

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